Myanmar's reforms face tough challenges in hopeful new year

This year is a crucial one for Myanmar's democratic reform and diplomacy.

With prominent achievements in advancing democracy, a highly open and free society, and gradual improvement in people's livelihood and welfare, Myanmar has been credited by the West as a model of democratic transition and a rising star in economic development.

The Assembly of the Union has been propelling amendments on the constitution, which opposition parties are also devoting themselves to, and the government is negotiating with more than 10 ethnic rebel groups to hammer out details of a nationwide peace accord, pushing for a quick ceasefire in early 2014.

This is a year for Myanmar to show its diplomatic wisdom and maneuver. Holding the ASEAN chairmanship for the first time in 2014, Myanmar has rejoined the international community with a high-profile posture and an improving international image after half a century of rule by the junta. Myanmar's ASEAN chairmanship is of particular significance in realizing ASEAN integration and updating regional cooperation as ASEAN is hoping to build up the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015. As one of the initiators of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, Myanmar will jointly celebrate the 60th anniversary of the principles with China and India in 2014.

The reforming country is quickly emerging as a diplomatic star of ASEAN and in the Asia-Pacific region at large, restoring its past glory as the second largest Southeast Asian country in terms of size.

However, Myanmar continues to face arduous tasks in carrying out all-round reforms in politics, economy, ethnic and foreign relations. That's why Nay Pyi Taw should be cautious in dealing with domestic and external challenges and reconciling the interests of all parties to better and steadily promote reforms.

Western countries, the US in particular, are highly concerned with Myanmar's democratic process. A set of preconditions to lift all sanctions against Myanmar and seek overall rapprochement in bilateral relations include releasing all political prisoners, realizing national reconciliation and eliminating ethnic conflicts and cutting off military ties with North Korea. Whether the West will continue to pressure Myanmar over those issues in this year remains to be seen.

The Western countries, organizations and activists in Myanmar hold that Myanmar's ongoing reform has failed to meet human rights standards. In 2006, Myanmar was forced to give up the chairmanship of ASEAN under pressure of the US and European countries.

Currently, Western countries and organizations keep a close eye on how Myanmar is improving its human rights. Some human rights groups wrote an open letter to US President Barack Obama last week, calling on him to press his Myanmar counterpart U Thein Sein to release all political prisoners by the end of 2013. Although Myanmar announced a sweeping prisoner amnesty on Monday, some human rights groups claimed the amnesty does not free all political detainees.

Ko Ko Gyi, a leader of the 88 Generation Students Group, is reportedly planning a demonstration on January 5 with up to 60 civil society groups against the government suppressing protests. Will these groups take the chance of ASEAN Summit in Myanmar in 2014 to stage protests? How can Myanmar maintain the rule of law and stability while protecting human rights?

Negotiations between the government and rebel ethnic groups have been trapped in a series of thorny problems such as the separation of power, resource allocation, ethnic culture protection and local disarmament.

At the same time, bloody conflicts between Buddhists and Muslims in recent years have spread across the country. Will Islamic countries in ASEAN and the Western countries embarrass Myanmar in ASEAN meetings by raising the problem of the country's ethnic and religious conflicts? 

Another concern is Myanmar's military ties with North Korea.

Despite repeated statements by Myanmar authorities that they have severed military relations with Pyongyang, the US recently imposed sanctions against one Myanmar military official and three companies over allegations of military trade with North Korea, but claimed it didn't target the Myanmar reformist government.

The US hoped to press the Myanmar military to accelerate reform as well as deterring North Korea.

But will the US publicly pressure on Myanmar in this year if the North Korean nuclear issue escalates again?

Resolving those problems not only need diplomatic skills from Myanmar, but also sympathy and understanding over the difficulties of reform from external powers.

The author is a Myanmar affairs commentator based in Beijing. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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