MYANMAR celebrated Armed Forces Day last week as President Thein Sein ponders his options for the future. It comes at time when the country is in the throes of political impasse. Everything is currently stalled, with the government and bureaucracy paralysed by the preoccupation with the campaign for constitutional change and the growing preoccupation with the forthcoming elections in 2015.
But the political uncertainty may be about to end, as Thein Sein has decided to seek a second term of office. This will certainly calm the fears of many government people that a power struggle within the governing Union Solidarity and Development party (USDP) to succeed the president was going to irretrievably damage the government's current reform process.
It is no coincidence that the campaign to draft Thein Sein in for another term has built up steam around the country's celebration of Army Day -- as it is the military that could make sure Thein Sein is re-elected. Of course the USDP will have to fight the elections against a resurgent opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi.
But no matter how well the NLD does, the 25 % of parliamentarians who are appointed from the military will hold the balance of power, and they almost certainly will decide the next presidential contest in Thein Sein's favour. After the elections the lower house, upper house and the military MPs will separately elect their own vice presidents. Then the president will be chosen from these three candidates at a joint sitting of the national parliament.
For months now, many ministers and the powerful pro-reform lobby within the USDP -- led by the Vice Chairman Htay Oo -- have been lobbying the president to run again. "Above all else we need stability and continuity," Htay Oo told The Daily Star. "And the best way for that to be achieved is for the president to remain in charge of the country." It would seem that he and the others have got his way.
The president has been telling many Myanmar businessmen that, provided his health withstands the strain, he intends to seek re-election in 2015. It is no coincidence that he has been confiding his political intentions to the country's business community first. This is because he wanted to allay their fears about the future and the fate of the reform process. But more importantly, their support and financial assistance will be critical to the USDP's election campaign.
Thein Sein's political advisers have also privately confirmed his decision. "He had no option," one said. "Otherwise the USDP would disintegrate in the power struggle to succeed him -- and worse, Shwe Mann (the lower house speaker and chairman of the USDP) would be the unstoppable heir apparent."
Many of Thein Sein's ministers and supporters fear Shwe Mann's naked political ambition, but while personality clashes and differences are crucial in Myanmar's political and economic struggles, there are also strong ideological differences -- especially on economic matters.
Shwe Mann is the key supporter of local business interests, which are currently demanding increased protection against foreign investors. He has strong support from the old hardliners -- Than Shwe's men -- and former ministers, who are MP's with strong personal business interests. Aung Thaung is the key one amongst them.
Within the USDP there is an ongoing power struggle between the two titans of the party -- Thein Sein and Shwe Mann. Thein Sein of course is laid-back in his approach, and now that he's decided to run again, there is little he needs to do to gain the support of the party -- apart from making sure the government delivers significant economic results in the next 18 months before the elections.
Shwe Mann on the other hand, may have no alternative now but to initiate a revolt within the party against the current status quo, if he is to unseat the president. He is already campaigning and networking within the USDP to build up his support base. He has formed alliances with most of the leading office bearers in the USDP and a hard-core faction has begun to emerge.
Shwe Mann is trying to build a support base within the party intended to bring allies into a potential electoral and parliamentary coalition. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi of NLD is a crucial part of his game plan. He has been flirting with her ever since she and the 43 NLD representatives entered parliament in mid-2012.
They have been working very closely and have seen eye-to-eye on the need to strengthen the role of parliament and reduce the power of the president. However, the Lady has begun to appreciate the risks of being too closely identified with Shwe Mann. "I have to be careful not to appear to be too close to the speaker," she said recently. In fact, she is meeting him far less regularly than before as part of this strategy.
He has reportedly assured her that he will support constitutional change that would allow her to stand for president, but on the understanding that she will support his candidacy if they failed to amend the constitution before 2015.
Aung San Suu Kyi, who has clearly stated her desire to be the next president, is also facing a critical decision. It increasingly seems that there will be no constitutional changes before the next elections. This means Aung San Suu Kyi would be ineligible to become the next present, as the constitutional requirements effectively prohibit her from becoming president. This would leave the Lady in the cold. "We have to contemplate this," the spokesman and key member of the NLD central executive committee, Nyan Win, told The Daily Star recently. "Then we will have to find another presidential successor; but it's impossible to know who that might be at the moment." He also admitted supporting Shwe Mann may be an option.
Though he may have the Lady's blessing and support, the military remain the key obstacle to his presidential ambitions. The current commander-in-chief of the army is going to be crucial to any political outcome that unfolds after the next elections. At present it is Min Aung Hlaing, but he is due to retire before the next government takes office in March 2016. And it will be his successor who will choose the soldier representatives in the next parliament and they will comprise a quarter of all MPs. They will also nominate their own candidate for president, who will almost certainly be the then former military head, Min Aung Hlaing.
So, whoever becomes president has to have the support of the military. That rules out Shwe Mann's chances -- Min Aung Hlaing is strongly opposed to Shwe Mann and certainly wants to scupper his bid to become the next president. Although the army chief clearly tells people that his first loyalty is to the former leader Than Shwe, he supports President Thein Sein. He has frequently sided with the president against the parliament. But there is strong evidence that he sees a political role for himself after retirement.
This would open the door for the USDP to mount their political solution to the possibility of a Shwe Mann-Aung San Suu Kyi alliance. The dream team -- Thein Sein for president and Min Aung Hlaing for vice president -- would be irresistible. And with the soldier-politicians' support, it is almost certain that Thein Sein will be returned to power.
The writer is a freelance correspondent and political analyst
based in Bangkok.
(Exclusive to The Daily Star)
http://www.information.myanmaronlinecentre.com/army-remains-crucial-to-myanmars-political-future/
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