Tough days ahead

Myanmar's President Thein Sein may be nursing the illusion that the deal with the Kachin rebels will be a source of succour. But the truth is that the deal cannot yet be defined as a peace agreement.  In real terms, according to a statement, it is to lay "the foundations for political dialogue and working towards ending the conflict in Kachin" which restarted when a truce lasting 17 years was shattered by the military that did not want to ease its hold over the region a wee bit. The latest spell of violence has lasted for about two years and had caused great misery, which is not lesser that the pain and suffering the Muslims have been suffering for more than a year. And there is little doubt that the pathetic state of millions of Myanmarese will not improve unless the military, now in the wings of the country's political stage, vanishes forever into the background where it had lurked until 1962 when General Ne Win ousted the government of U Nu. But this may not happen in the near future as the military has enjoyed untrammeled power with more than one-fifth of the country's budget being channelled to it. Indicative of this reality is the periodic violence being unleashed against the Muslims that is suspected to be the work of the military and its agent provocateurs. The latest example is the violence in Thandwe last when a 94-year-old Muslim woman was slain by Buddhists. More than 100 houses were destroyed there and the tension still continues. Tension and high anxiety have also affected the Muslims in other parts of the country. In Rakhine state, Mandalay region, Shan state and other areas, not much has been done to curb the fanatic Buddhists. The Rohingyas of Rakhine state are certainly the most affected and despite global appeals, Thein Sein has not done much to solace them.

Thein Sein may perhaps be aware of the dangers from the military and he hinted at his fears in a recent media interview. Perhaps the president is following a policy of caution until he is strong enough to challenge the military. Perhaps that is also why Aung Saan Suu Kyi is also silent about the atrocities against the Rohingyas and other Muslims. The foundation of their strategy may be caution. Their aim might be to ensure the presidential elections of 2015 go ahead according to schedule. Total restraint on their part alone will ensure that the military will nullify rules that prevent Suu Kyi from contesting and give the generals the confidence that she will tow their line to some extent once she wins and becomes president, a certainty if she is allowed to contest. In the final analysis, Myanmar may witness more murder and mayhem in the coming days with the Muslims being the main targets. Other troubling boils may also appear  Thein Sein certainly faces tough days head.

http://www.information.myanmaronlinecentre.com/tough-days-ahead/