Libya is in a
sorry state. Fighting continues at the extremist-controlled international
airport in Tripoli, which the Libyan air force attacked last week. City
centers are still embroiled in conflict, and earlier this month, the country's
Supreme Court dissolved
the country's internationally recognized parliament. Now, two rival prime ministers
are squaring off, beating the drums
of war, fighting over control of the capital, Tripoli. The
country, which has for months been the site of military confrontation against a
background of political infighting, is nearing the point of no return.
Amid this chaos, the
Constituent Assembly, which has been quietly drafting a new constitution from
its home in al-Baida, is now facing pressure to intervene in the ongoing
political struggle. In this environment of toxic division and worsening
security, Libya has few options left -- and they all come with serious risks.
The country's
democratic transition has suffered some serious blows ever since Libya Dawn (a Misratan-Islamist
led coalition)
rejected the results of the June 25 House of Representatives elections, which
favored nationalist and federalist candidates. Fearing that the new legislature
would work against the Islamist agenda, the alliance -- which formed last July,
just a few weeks before the new parliament's first session -- decided to use
its military power to prevent it from meeting. To consolidate their position on
the ground, this alliance launched an attack on rival militias in Tripoli. The
attack resulted in the destruction
of Tripoli's main international airport as well as other vital infrastructure
installations, such as the city's only oil and gas tanks. (The photo above shows Libya Dawn militants stationed in the Kilka region.)
But Libya Dawn
did not stop at taking control of Tripoli. On Aug. 23, it decided to resurrect
the unpopular former legislature, the General National Congress (GNC), and appointed
a rival government led by Omar al-Hassi. Having won control of Tripoli,
Libya Dawn launched a legal challenge with the Supreme Court questioning the
constitutionality of the House of Representatives election. The Court ruled
in favor of the Dawn coalition and declared the internationally recognized
parliament unconstitutional. The ruling has complicated matters further.
Meanwhile, the GNC
has requested an update from the Constituent Assembly on its drafting process.
This represents the latest attempt to drag the Constituent Assembly into the ongoing
political struggle. A Constituent Assembly response to the request
could be considered a formal recognition of the GNC, which would put the
Assembly at odds with the House of Representatives. On the other hand, if the
Constituent Assembly does not respond to the request, the Dawn alliance could
refuse to recognize the new constitution altogether.
The House of
Representatives and its government both rejected
the Supreme Court's ruling. They claim
that the Supreme Court's verdict was reached under duress, given that Libya
Dawn's militias have been in control of Tripoli for many weeks. The
international community faced a diplomatic dilemma following the ruling. The United Nations'
Support Mission in Libya decided to study the ruling before it makes a
definitive decision on which body it will recognize as the sole and legitimate
authority in Libya. But the international community is taking its time, and is focusing
instead on using the legal and political crisis to bring opposing factions
together and form a unity government.
There are two
scenarios in which such a unity government could be formed successfully. Both
come with huge risks for Libya's future.
In the first
scenario, Libya would abandon the democratic process completely and instead
grant power to an unelected body similar to the National Transitional Council
that was formed in 2011 after Qaddafi's ouster. This new governing body would
set up and lead a unity government until a constitution is drafted and passed
in a referendum. This scenario risks establishing the dangerous precedent that
if a faction is unhappy with the results of an election, it can use force to
bring the democratic process to a halt. Libya has too many armed groups, all
with opposing views, so this precedent could set off an endless cycle of failed
votes and civil war, ensuring that Libya never reaches democracy. To avoid such
an eventuality, Libya must work hard to maintain the democratic process in the
country by either calling for new elections or adopting the next scenario
despite all the risks attached.
In the second
scenario, Libya's Constituent Assembly would have to take on a political role
and become the country's new legislator, following a new transitional roadmap
until a new constitution is approved. The Assembly is viewed as the only
undisputed, elected body that could enjoy the support of both the House of
Representatives and the GNC in a negotiated settlement. However, the
spokesperson for the Constituent Assembly, Al-Sadiq al-Durssi, explained to me
during an interview that "the Constituent Assembly is making [a] serious effort
to make sure that [it] will only work on the constitution building process and
not get involved in the current political crisis." Other Constituent Assembly
members expressed the same reluctance. But it's rapidly becoming apparent that
the Constituent Assembly might not have a choice in the matter; it seems to be
Libya's last hope. "If there is no other choice for Libya, then we have to step
up to the responsibility out of national duty," said Hassan Sakran, head of the
Constituent Assembly's National Resources committee.
The governing
body is expected to produce a first draft of the new constitution by the end of
next month. Involving the Constituent Assembly in the current struggle could
threaten the collapse of this constitution-building process, because it would
invite in the rampant political polarization that the Assembly members have so
far been able to evade. The country's transition depends on the promise of this
new constitution. This could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
If the
Constituent Assembly must play a role in the current crisis, it should come as
a result of an agreement between the main stakeholders in the current crisis.
All parties must recognize the Assembly as the sole legitimate authority in the
country, and the international community must support it. But the stakes are
high: If the Constituent Assembly, too, falls prey to Libya's rampant political
division, then Libya will be left without a government, without a constitution,
and completely without hope.
Mohamed Eljarh is the Libya blogger for
Transitions and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri
Center. Read the rest of his blog posts here.
MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images
http://www.information.myanmaronlinecentre.com/democracy-lab-weekly-brief-december-1-2014/
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