On September
18, Burma marked the twenty-fifth anniversary of the most important military
coup in its recent history. When state-owned radio announced that the military had
taken over at 4 p.m. on Sept. 18, 1988, I was just 14. My fellow students and I
were staging a hunger strike as part of a nonviolent protest to call for the restoration
of democracy in Burma.
A dreary
rain was falling. A voice on the radio read the coup announcement over and over
again, alternating with loud military marching songs. The noise from the radio
was agonizing enough. But then we heard a series of gunshots, and when we
realized that they were gradually getting closer, older students and community
leaders rushed to a nearby intersection to set up roadblocks so that an
approaching column of soldiers couldn't reach us and clear out our camp. The
younger hunger strikers, including myself, were promptly escorted to a nearby Buddhist
monastery that the opposition was using as a refuge from the military
crackdown. The junta imposed martial law and a corresponding curfew. General
Saw Maung, the man in charge of the coup, once notoriously stated that "martial
law means that there's no law in the country."
In the military
crackdown that followed, I saw people being shot to death in front of me.
Thousands of people, including many of my colleagues, left for the border
areas, where ethnic rebel groups helped them form a student army to wage an armed
struggle against the junta. After a few months of activism, I went into hiding
to avoid arrest. That period ultimately lasted nine years. Eventually I crossed
the border into Thailand in 1997. I've worked as a journalist ever since.
That was 25
years ago. In 2011, President Thein Sein (once the top general in the previous
junta) took office, and the government he headed soon began signaling a
political opening and the possibility of reform. Thein Sein's administration
released political prisoners, lifted media censorship, and allowed opposition
participation in the country's parliament. Most exiles, including me, were
allowed to come back home.
I recently
went back to the place where we staged the hunger strike and the monastery where
we took refuge. It was a surreal experience. None of the people in my old
neighborhood believed that they would ever see me again in this life. They've
always assumed that anyone who fled the country and lived in exile would never
be able to return. Whenever they see me again, they pinch my hand as if to
convince themselves that it's really me. They hope, they tell me, that our
horrible past won't ever be repeated. I have the same dream. I don't ever want
to relive such a tragic past, not even in memory. And yet I sometimes feel like
we're reliving those old days again, right now.
People often
ask me if I think the country is sliding back into the dark age of military rule.
If someone had asked me that question last year, I would have given a more
optimistic answer. But now, I see that Burma and my people are slipping into a
state of profound anxiety as communal riots, deepening poverty, ongoing
civil strife, and the rivalries of political elites ravage the country. I don't
think we can rule out any scenarios. In fact, two senior insiders of the ruling
party have told me that another coup could well be a last resort if the nation
slides into chaos.
A coup can
be carried out legally under the current constitution, and that's the likely
outcome if the reforms fundamentally hurt the army's institutional, political, or
economic prerogatives. The military's decision to stage a coup, however, would depend
not only on domestic politics, but also on the army's geopolitical calculations.
The Burmese
military has long been aware of its over-dependence on China for equipment and
training as well as political and economic support. Almost all the former and
current military officers I've met tell me that the quality of Chinese equipment
is terrible. The officers can still remember the days when they received U.S.
military assistance, which they preferred. They recall that the United States
financed $4.7 million in military sales in the 1980s as well as paid
for about 175 Burmese officers to attend U.S. military schools under the
International Military Education and Training (IMET) security assistance
program. This bilateral defense relationship was abruptly terminated by the United
States when the Burmese army seized power in September 1988. That was the end
of the "good old days," as one officer lamented.
Since the
mid-1990s, the Burmese army has been eager to diversify and reduce its
dependence on China. But U.S.-led Western arms embargoes have prevented the
military from doing so. Yet the military's willingness to support political
reform in Burma has won Washington's support. Now a lot is riding on the
possibility of reestablishing military-to-military relations with the Western
countries.
The U.S. defense
secretary said
in 2012 that the United States was open to forging better military ties with
Burma. Early this year, the United States allowed Burma to send a team of
observers to the Cobra Gold
military exercise in Thailand. In late August 2013, U.S. Ambassador Derek
Mitchell met
with the head of Burma's armed forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, to discuss
legal practices in military combat in a "cordial" effort to strengthen
defense relations between the two countries. Australia,
Britain, and other Western
countries are also gradually resuming military ties with Burma.
Though the skeptics
are rightly uneasy
about the nature and extent of such defense relations, the opportunity to
re-engage with Western militaries is an important incentive for the military's
continued support of political reform.
In short, any positive political concessions the
Burmese military is likely to make regarding constitutional reform and the 2015
elections rest to a significant degree on a mil-to-mil incentive package from the
United States. I think that smart, timely action by the United States to
reconnect with the Burmese military would be one of the best insurance polices
against another military take-over. And that could well save me and my compatriots
from reliving that tragic day in September 1988.
Min Zin is the Burma blogger for Transitions. Read the rest of his posts here.
http://www.information.myanmaronlinecentre.com/transitions-why-it-makes-sense-to-engage-with-burmas-military/
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