Nationwide ceasefire deal still up in the air after second ethnic conference

Nationwide ceasefire deal still up in the air after second ethnic conference

Published on Tuesday, 28 January 2014 01:18

Written by Nay Htun Naing

LAW KHEE LAR—Last week's second conference by ethnic armed organisations, which was supposed to last only three days, ended up being twice as long because of disagreement over strategy surrounding the nationwide ceasefire deal.

On the fifth day of the conference (January 20-25), held in Law Khee Lar, situated in a KNLA-controlled area, ethnic group leaders signed a draft ceasefire. However, the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) failed to sign it. Other signatures missing from the document were those of the United Wa State Party/United Wa State Army (UWSP/UWSA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), whose representatives did not attend the conference.

The RCSS said earlier that it would follow the stance of the government towards the nationwide ceasefire deal. The UWSP and NDAA groups are not involved with the ceasefire discussions and are regarded as followers of China. These three ethnic organisations also failed to sign an 11-point common agreement in Laiza.

Sixteen armed groups, including the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), signed the draft nationwide ceasefire deal at Law Khee Lar. However, the signed draft represents merely what the ethnic groups have agreed to: only when the government has agreed to the same terms will there be a signed ceasefire agreement.

 

Letdown in Laiza

The Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC) proposed a nationwide ceasefire deal that was to be signed last year, with a ceremony to be held in Nay Pyi Taw in July. However, the event has been postponed at least five times.

The government wanted the ceasefire to come first and political dialogue second, while the ethnic groups insisted on the opposite. The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), in particular, was entrenched in this position. Last year, the KIO and northern allied groups wanted political dialogue to start as soon as possible. At the same time, southern groups led by the KNU and RCSS/SSA favoured the stance of the government towards the ceasefire. In this circumstance, disagreements arose among the ethnic groups.

The first ethnic conference was held in Laiza, headquarters of the KIO in northern Kachin State. Although the October 30-November 2 meeting highlighted disagreements among the ethnic groups, those in attendance signed an 11-point common agreement. Meanwhile, a Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team was formed with the intent of negotiating with the government about the ceasefire. The team was comprised of representatives from most ethnic groups, the exceptions being the RCSS, UWSP and NDAA.

Sticking to the 11-point common agreement, the NCCT held discussions with the UPWC in Myitkyina on November 4 and 5. At that juncture, the UPWC proposed the government-drafted ceasefire draft, and that led to disagreements between the NCCT and the government. There was no positive result from the Myitkyina meeting.

 

NCCT and UPWC

Naing Han Sor, general secretary of the United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), leads the NCCT, which represents ethnic armed groups. (The second leaders are Maj-General S. Gwan Maw, deputy chief of staff of the KIA and Pado Kwe Htoo Win, general secretary of the KNU.) Aung Min, Minister for the President's Office, leads the UPWC. The Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) is subordinate to the UPWC and is comprised of the government's main negotiators.

The NCCT and the UPWC met four times to discuss matters relating to the draft ceasefire. On December 2, the government withdrew its proposed draft after the Myitkyina meeting and decided to continue negotiations based on the 11-point common agreement of the NCCT.

On December 15, the NCCT and UPWC held discussions on the draft ceasefire based on the 11-point common agreement. The UPWC made amendments and discussions. On December 29, they met again in Thailand's Chian Mai and made some amendments to the draft ceasefire. With the government's amendments and suggestions, the ninth ceasefire draft based on the Laiza principles appeared, and it became an agenda item at the Law Khee Lar conference.

 

Law Khee Lar: a prelude to Hpa-an

The second ethnic armed organisations conference was held in a KNLA-controlled area. It was earlier scheduled for December but was postponed until January. The Hpa-an dialogue has been postponed until the last week of February. However, according to the discussions at Law Khee Lar, the Hpa-an dialogue might be further delayed until March. During the Law Khee Lar conference, KIA deputy chief of staff S. Gwan Maw said that efforts were being made to be able to start the Hpa-an dialogue.

The Law Khee Lar camp is close to the No-7 Brigade of the KNU, where KNU Brig.Gen. Saw Jonney  resides. The KNU has good relations with the government. As the Law Khee Lar conference was held in a KNLA-controlled area, however, it was questionable how much the conference would be able to accept the attitudes of the government.

During the first day's session, Genneral Saw Mutu Say Poe told the conference that it was important not to make a mistake. He also urged the ethnic groups to bravely sign the agreed points on peace. Northern allied groups led by the KIO and southern groups led by the KNU had different opinions on the ceasefire and political dialogue.

 

Preparing for Law Khee Lar

The ninth ceasefire draft, presented to the conference during the first day's session on January 20, prompted a minor argument. Under the leadership of conference chair Pu Hlan Oak (chair of the CNF), delegates continued discussions on the ninth draft ceasefire, the NCCT report, and the journal of Maj-Gen S. Gwan Maw.

During the second day's session, the ethnic groups discussed the use of the term "ethnic armed resistance organisations." (The government wanted to leave out the word "resistance", but the ethnic groups wanted to keep it.) There was also discussion about forming a federal union army and what details of the framework for political dialogue should be added to the draft ceasefire.

During the third day's session, Shwe Myo Thant, secretary-2 of the Karenni National Progressive Party, warned that the tone of discussion at the conference had to change because discussions of the previous day were a useless waste of time. Colonel Khun Hseng, general secretary of the Shan State Progressive Party, warned that unless there were strong principles, there would only be "pretend unity," which was not desirable. Without genuine unity, the ethnic groups would fall under the authority of others.

"We need to cleverly seek an acceptable principle that will allow us to take a flexible approach to the ceasefire. If we give up on the principle, our issues will go adrift," said Colonel Khun Hseng.

 

Law Khee Lar's decisions 

The Law Khee Lar conference did not release the draft ceasefire signed by the ethnics. Instead, delegates decided to continue negotiating the draft containing frameworks for political dialogue with the government. The decisions of Law Khee Lar were aimed at striking a fair balance between the government's position and those of the ethnic armed groups.

The tenth draft ceasefire agreed at the conference will include guarantees to establish a federal Union and federal army; draw up the frameworks for political dialogue within 60 days of signing the ceasefire deal; start political dialogue within 90 days; and include interim period plans. 

 

Law Khee Lar's future journey

The tenth draft ceasefire will continue to be negotiated until it is acceptable to both sides. On January 29, the NCCT will meet with the UPWC to continue discussing the draft. To seek approval from the Wa and the NDAA, the Law Khee Lar conference proposed holding an ethnic summit in NDAA under the responsibility of the SSPP/SSA. After that, the ethnic groups and the UPWC will be more likely to meet in Hpa-an.

Due to the reasons above, the nationwide ceasefire agreement will likely be reached in late July this year. After that, it will have to be approved by the parliament. Political dialogue will likely be held in mid-2015 or after 2015.

The ethnic armed groups wanted the government to agree to the tenth draft ceasefire and to sign it before 2014. In 2015, political dialogue may occur amidst a national election campaign.

 

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